Donald Trump just put the final boot into a collapsing British government. Writing on Truth Social, the US President boldly predicted that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign, claiming he "failed badly" on immigration and energy. Trump even added a characteristically loud plug for opening up North Sea oil.
Westminster is in absolute meltdown. Reports are swirling that Starmer might outline a timetable for his departure as early as Monday. But while Trump's prediction looks like it's about to hit the bullseye, his diagnosis of the problem misses the real political rot destroying the British Labour government from the inside out.
Trump wants you to believe this is purely about borders and fossil fuels. It isn't. Those are massive issues, sure, but Starmer's sudden collapse is actually the result of a brutal internal party coup, an economic stall, and a devastating by-election result that changed the math overnight.
The real catalyst behind the Westminster meltdown
Let's look at what actually happened this weekend while Starmer was hiding out with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country estate. He wasn't just brooding over Trump's social media posts. He was looking at the wreckage of the Makerfield by-election.
Andy Burnham, the high-profile former Mayor of Greater Manchester, just stormed into Parliament. Burnham secured nearly 55% of the vote in Makerfield, crushing Nigel Farage's Reform UK by more than 9,000 votes.
That single election transformed the political map. For months, Labour lawmakers have watched their poll numbers sink as the public grew sick of sluggish economic growth and crumbling public services like the National Health Service. They felt trapped between a rising right-wing threat from Reform UK and bleeding progressive votes to the Green Party.
Burnham's victory showed Labour MPs a way out. He proved he could fight off Farage in working-class northern seats. The second Burnham won that seat, he became a prime minister in waiting, and the dam broke.
A cabinet in open revolt
Trump's commentary makes it sound like an outside critique, but the calls are coming from inside the house. Starmer's authority has completely evaporated.
Over 100 Labour MPs—roughly a quarter of the party's strength in Parliament—have publicly demanded he step down or set a firm exit date. More damaging still is the betrayal from his closest allies. Reports indicate that Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper privately urged Starmer to resign. When your own Foreign Secretary tells you it's over, the game is up.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle didn't exactly offer a glowing defense either. He told the BBC that Starmer was making time to reflect on "political realities" and would do what is in the best interests of the country. Translation: he's figuring out how to leave without causing total chaos.
Where Trump got it right and wrong
Look at the two areas Trump highlighted: immigration and energy.
On immigration, the UK government has been paralyzed. Starmer ditched the previous Conservative government's Rwanda deportation scheme on day one but failed to replace it with anything that stopped the small boat crossings across the English Channel. Public anger has boiled over, fueling Farage's rise. Trump isn't wrong that immigration policy has failed, but the political cost is hurting Labour locally more than internationally.
On energy, Trump's demand to "OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!" hits a raw nerve. Starmer's aggressive green energy push and restrictions on new oil and gas drilling licenses alienated industrial towns and trade unions. It choked off local investment without delivering the cheaper bills promised to voters.
But Trump completely ignored the other massive anchors dragging Starmer down:
- Economic Stagnation: The promised growth never arrived, leaving families squeezed by persistent cost-of-living pressures.
- Foreign Policy Friction: Trump and Starmer have been on a collision course since January. Starmer's refusal to offer direct military support for the US-Israeli war effort against Iran deeply angered the White House. Trump's text jab that Starmer is "no Winston Churchill" stems directly from this friction.
- Unforced Political Errors: Appointing controversial figures to key roles severely damaged Starmer's brand as a clean-government technocrat.
What happens next in Downing Street
Starmer insisted just days ago that he would fight any leadership challenge, stating, "I will run, I will stand." But behind the scenes, that defiance has shattered. He's trapped.
If he resigns on Monday, two scenarios could play out immediately:
- The Caretaker Option: Starmer steps down with immediate effect, and a senior cabinet minister takes over temporarily while the party holds a lightning-fast leadership vote.
- The Orderly Transition: Starmer announces a timetable to hand over power around the party's annual conference in September, hoping to avoid plunging the country into total chaos.
The problem with waiting until September is that British politics moves too fast now. If Starmer quits, he will be the sixth prime minister to leave office in a single decade. That level of political turnover makes Britain look less like a stable G7 democracy and more like a revolving-door coalition government.
Rival camps are already organizing. While Burnham is the heavy favorite, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting is waiting in the wings to mount a challenge. To trigger a formal contest, any challenger needs the backing of 20% of Labour MPs. But party elders are desperate to avoid a bloody, public civil war. They want a clean coronation for Burnham to steady the ship before the markets freak out.
The immediate step for the British government isn't fixing immigration or opening oil fields. It's survival. Expect a definitive statement from Downing Street within the next 24 hours that will either confirm Trump's prediction or trigger an all-out civil war for the future of the UK.
