Steve Kornacki is back at his big board, khakis sharp and markers ready, but the data he’s circling this year should make every Kansas fan lose sleep. If you’re looking at the Jayhawks and seeing a blue-blood program destined for the second weekend, you’re likely ignoring the giant red flags waving over Lawrence. Bill Self is a coaching legend, but even he can’t ignore that this year’s squad has a "glass jaw" quality that usually leads to an early exit in the NCAA Tournament.
The answer to why Kansas is in trouble isn’t a secret. It’s a mix of a brutal East Region draw and a reliance on superstar freshman Darryn Peterson, who has spent as much time battling chronic cramping as he has the opposing defense. When your primary engine has reliability issues, you don’t bet on the car to win a cross-country race.
The Darryn Peterson dilemma and the depth gap
Darryn Peterson is, pound for pound, arguably the most talented player in this field. He averages nearly 20 points a game and can create a shot out of thin air. But the "it" factor is currently missing. Between those injuries and a strange, sluggish performance in the Big 12 Tournament—where they got absolutely dismantled by Houston 69-47—the Jayhawks look tired.
I've watched enough March Madness to know that talent rarely beats chemistry and health in the first two rounds. Kansas is thin. Beyond Peterson, Tre White, and Flory Bidunga, the drop-off in production is steep. If Bidunga gets into foul trouble against a physical 13-seed like Cal Baptist, who do they turn to? The Jayhawks' bench has been a non-factor for most of February and March.
Why the East Region is a total nightmare
If you wanted to design a bracket specifically to ruin Bill Self’s spring, this is it. Kansas is the No. 4 seed in the East, which sounds respectable until you look at who’s waiting in the wings.
- Duke (No. 1): Led by Cameron Boozer, the Blue Devils already beat Kansas earlier this year. They’re faster, deeper, and more athletic.
- UConn (No. 2): The Huskies are the standard for tournament toughness. They beat Kansas in December and have a way of suffocating teams that rely on a single primary scorer.
- St. John's (No. 5): Rick Pitino in March is a terrifying prospect for any high seed.
Kansas basically has to run a gauntlet of teams that have already proven they can beat them. It’s not just about the "fear factor" being gone; it's about the math. Kansas has lost its last three tournament games before the Sweet 16. The trend isn't your friend here.
Upset picks that actually make sense
If you’re fading Kansas, where should you put your "upset" energy? Kornacki’s data points toward a few high-value targets that have the right metrics to ruin a bracket.
Look at Arizona in the West
While everyone is obsessed with Duke and UConn, Arizona has quietly become the most balanced team in the country. They’re top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. With Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, they have the NBA-level talent to skip past the mid-major traps that usually catch them. They’re a No. 1 seed that feels like a No. 1 seed.
The St. John's surge
If you’re looking for a "Cinderella" that isn’t really a Cinderella, it’s the Red Storm. Pitino has them playing a style of defense that forces turnovers at a rate Kansas simply can't handle. If St. John’s meets Kansas in the second round, I’m taking the Johnnies without blinking.
Watch out for Michigan State
Never, ever bet against Tom Izzo in March when he’s a lower seed. The Spartans are a No. 3 seed in the East, and they’ve shown flashes of being able to lock down anyone. They’re the type of veteran-heavy team that eats freshmen-led squads like Kansas for lunch.
Stop overvaluing the name on the jersey
The biggest mistake bracket-fillers make is picking Kansas because they’re "Kansas." Honestly, this isn’t the 2022 championship team. That group had a grit that this roster hasn't found yet. When Houston held them to 47 points last week, it exposed a lack of a Plan B. If Peterson isn't "on," the Jayhawks' offense looks like it's stuck in mud.
Don't let the khakis and the big board stats fool you into a safe pick. Kansas is vulnerable, the East is loaded, and the smart money is on an early Jayhawk exit.
If you're looking for a winner, look at the teams with multiple ways to score and veteran point guards who don't rattle. That's not Kansas this year.
Take a hard look at your East Region picks. If you have Kansas in the Final Four, delete it and start over. Focus on the defensive efficiency of Houston or the sheer depth of Duke instead. Betting on a turnaround from a team that hasn't made a Sweet 16 in years is just a recipe for a busted bracket.
